Spatial Dynamic Modeling through Cellular Automata for Simulating Land Use Change Dynamics

要旨

This paper presents a prototype of a simulation model based on cellular automata (CA), and multi criteria evaluation, integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS). Multi criteria evaluation procedure is used to derive behavior-oriented transition rules. The CA model is built within a grid-GIS system of ARC/INFO GIS using arc macro language to facilitate easy access to GIS databases for constructing the constraints. A suitability-based cellular automata model has been developed to simulate land use change dynamics through the concepts of "probability of happening of the dynamic phenomenon' and 'suitability of the land for the dynamic phenomenon". Land degradation is the dynamic phenomenon that has been modeled in the present study. It can be used as a useful planning tool to test the effects of different land use change scenarios.